DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/25 10:48
Corn, Beans Higher at Midday
Corn is 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 7 cents higher, and wheat is
2 to 5 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 90 points. The dollar index
is 35 points higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are
mixed with crude $0.25 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading.
Precious metals are mostly lower with gold down $11.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade working to hold
support to close the week. The daily export wire was quiet for corn again
today. Ethanol margins are steady with unleaded holding near the upper end of
the recent range. Basis has started to slide towards harvest levels in many
areas with open weather allowing combines to roll. On the December contract,
trade has support at the $3.65 20-day moving average, which we are working to
hold overnight, with the recent high at $3.78 as resistance.
Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with trade working back above
$10.00 at midday. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 higher and oil is 45 to 55 points
higher. The ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of South American
planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine farmer selling
remains slow, with Brazil heavily sold ahead. Export offers continue to get
tighter in availability as well with meal driving the product complex while
strain on domestic logistics will increase. The daily wire saw 100,000 metric
tons of soymeal to unknown. The November chart has resistance at the upper
Bollinger Band at $10.46, which is also the fresh high with support the 20-day
Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents lower with the stronger dollar and little fresh
news encouraging profit taking into the weekend after nearby support failed to
hold. The dollar is firmer vs. the ruble with little change in world export
competitiveness with more focus on the dry start in Russia and Ukraine, along
with Western Europe. Kansas City is at a 71-cent discount to Chicago with
spreads widening again after the recent strength, while Minneapolis is back to
a 14 cent discount with flat action. Wheat drilling progress should expand
across the plains short term with ok moisture for most for now but follow up
rain lacking. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.09,
and support is the 20-day at $4.78, which we are below at midday.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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