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DTN Closing Cotton            05/20 13:56

   Cotton Lower Friday on Rain, Recession

   The cotton market was sharply lower Friday as traders fear an unfolding 
recession, as well as rain for West Texas.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was sharply lower Friday as traders fear an unfolding 
recession, as well as rain for West Texas. To the latter, rain may not be 
beneficial for some portions of the Texas crop at this stage of its 
development. Additionally, a big unknown is how the Chinese economy will fare 
after its COVID-19 lockdowns are lifted, if they ever are. With that, the Dow 
Jones posted new lows for its run, and has entered the "bear market" 
designation, given it has dropped some 20% from its all-time high.

   The Nationally Crop Monitor, released Friday morning, showed that much of 
Texas is still suffering extreme to exceptional drought. Temperatures have been 
inordinately high, further drying soils and stressing crops. However, the 
Lubbock area has an improved chance for rain from Sunday night into Wednesday 
morning. The Southeast is anticipating much needed weekend rains as well.

   Chinese authorities are set to reopen Shanghai from its COVID-19 lockdown. 
Soon residents will be allowed to go out to shop for groceries for the first 
time in nearly two months. In addition, the port of Shanghai, the largest 
container port in the world, will reopen in stages.

   Friday afternoon, the CFTC will update its various trader categories. At 
last count, the closely watched managed-money funds had sold some 1900 long 
positions, lowering their bullish net position to 70,700 contracts. 

   For Friday, July cotton settled at 142.27 cents, down 5.43 cents, December 
closed at 128.18 cents, down 3.10 cents and March 2023 finished at 120.84 
cents, 3.09 cents lower; estimated volume was 24,854 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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