DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/21 10:49
Soybean Futures are Lower at Midday Tuesday; Corn, Wheat Flat-Lower
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
7 to 10 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are
7 to 10 cents lower; wheat futures are flat to 5 cents lower. The U.S. stock
market is firmer at midday with the S&P 60 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 15 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
firmer with crude 1.50 higher and natural gas .01 higher. Livestock trade is
mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 65.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to 1 cent lower at midday with trade backing off the
upper end of the range with short-term weather improvements and little other
fresh bullish news around to keeping buyers aggressive Tuesday. Ethanol margins
should remain solid but will face headwinds from overall driving demand
weakness. Weather should see a cooler and wetter stretch for much of the Corn
Belt through midweek before warming again into the weekend. Weekly crop
progress is showing good to excellent at 67% (down one percentage point) and
poor to very poor at 9% (up one percentage point) with 59% silking versus 54%
on average and 13% in the dough versus 11% on average. On the September chart,
the 20-day moving average at $4.33 is support with the upper Bollinger Band at
$4.56 as resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 7 to 10 cents lower at midday with soft spread action as
products drift sideways after the strong start to the week. Meal is flat to
1.00 higher and oil is 55 to 65 points lower. Basis should stay flat with crush
margins holding the recent range. Weather looks to show short-term improvement
before warming into key podfill season. Weekly crop progress showed good to
excellent at 66% (up one percentage point) and 8% poor to very poor (steady)
with 66% blooming versus 60% on average and 32% setting pods versus 24% last
year. On the September contract, chart support is the 20-day moving average at
$11.66 with the Upper Bollinger Band at $12.25 as resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are flat to 5 cents lower at midday with trade easing back
from the upper end of the range again as overbought conditions ease and we look
for further direction from row crops and Black Sea events for the balance of
the session. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 74% good to excellent
versus 71% on average as we wind down harvest further. Spring wheat declined to
53% good to excellent (down five percentage points) and 12% poor to very poor
(up 2 percentage points) with spring wheat areas to see some relief this week.
Matif wheat and euro corn are broadly lower as they ease overbought conditions.
On the KC September chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $6.67 with
the fresh high for the move at $7.40 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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