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DTN Closing Cotton 05/14 13:34
Cotton Market Gets Hammered
The cotton market was egregiously lower today amid poor exports, improving
weather, Chinese indifference and its overbought technical condition.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market was egregiously lower today amid poor exports, improving
weather, Chinese indifference and its overbought technical condition. Traders
quickly took profits at the first hint that cotton's upside momentum was
blunted. The market now will need to regroup before attempting to resume its
upside path.
Highlights from today's weekly export sales included sales 47,699 bales for
the current marketing year and 29,716 for 2026/27. The total was down from last
week's combination of 171,749. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 96% of
USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 105% for this point in the
marketing year.
Thus far, the Trump/Xi trade meeting has not been overly encouraging on any
new U.S. agricultural purchases. Traders now say that they do not anticipate
Beijing to increase soybean purchases beyond the commitment made last October,
amid weak domestic demand and competitively priced Brazilian supplies. Thus
far, corn and cotton have not been directly mentioned.
Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders
data. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 12,000 positions, lifting
their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. The all-time record bullish record
stands at 108,788 contracts.
The 6- to 10-day forecast (May 19-23) shows normal for Texas, but
above-normal readings for the U.S. Delta and the Southeast. Rainwise, Texas
shows much-above normal chances, while the Delta and the Southeast indicate
slightly above-normal opportunities.
For Thursday, July closed at 83.94 cents, off 282 points; December closed at
84.48 cents, minus 198 points; and March 2027 finished at 85.50, down 197
points. Thursday's estimated volume was 101,567 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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